A Small BVAR-DSGE Model for Forecasting the Australian Economy

This paper estimates a small structural model of the Australian economy, designed principally for forecasting the key macroeconomic variables of output growth, underlying inflation and the cash rate. In contrast to models with purely statistical foundations, which are often used for forecasting, the Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (BVAR-DSGE) model uses the theoretical information of a DSGE model to offset in-sample over-fitting. We follow the method of Del Negro and Schorfheide (2004) and use a variant of the small open economy DSGE model of Lubik and Schorfheide (2007) to provide prior information for the VAR. The forecasting performance of the model is competitive with benchmark models such as a Minnesota VAR and an independently estimated DSGE model.BVAR-DSGE; forecasting

The Curious History of Trade Union Law

The Curious History of Trade Union La

Fiscal Decentralisation and Economic Growth: A Bayesian Model Averaging Approach

This article re-examines the relationship between fiscal decentralisation and economic growth by employing Bayesian model averaging (BMA). BMA enables the consideration of a range of measures of fiscal decentralisation and allows the incorporation of model uncertainty into the empirical methodology. Posterior coefficient estimates suggest that not straightforward relationship exists between fiscal decentralisation and economic growth based on time-series data for Australia.

Verticality metaphors in Classical Hebrew revisited: Refining the analysis using Primary Metaphor Theory

This thesis applies a new theory to old data. It reanalyzes VERTICALITY metaphors for distress in Classical Hebrew using Primary Metaphor Theory. Previously, this pattern of metaphors in Hebrew was analyzed by King (2012) within the general framework of Conceptual Metaphor Theory. This study focuses on the ways that Primary Metaphor Theory radically changes the organization of conceptual structure as dictated by Conceptual Metaphor Theory and as used by King in his analysis of Hebrew VERTICALITY metaphors. The reorganization of conceptual structure following Primary Metaphor Theory hinges on the assumption that conceptual structures with direct, independent experiential motivations also have independent statuses in our minds. Equally, this study focuses on theoretical reasons for why this adjustment to the organization of conceptual structure should be preferred. King (2012) understood the metaphorical mapping of VERTICALITY onto DISTRESS as existing in a hierarchy in which there were two sub-schemas--spatial and postural VERTICALITY. I discard the higher-level structure and treat the mappings of the sub-schemas onto DISTRESS as independent structures and as construals of primary metaphors. This affects the generalizations made over metaphorical expressions that are supposed to be motivated by these structures. In this thesis, the reanalysis of Hebrew metaphor data is driven by the simple application of a new theoretical framework. Though valid, data-based arguments are made, the data themselves have not pushed the reanalysis

What Drives Fiscal Decentralisation?

This paper investigates the determinants of fiscal decentralisation, focusing in particular on the impact of the level of income on the level of fiscal decentralisation. Various measures of fiscal decentralisation, several of them novel in this context, are employed in a cross-country econometric model to test established and more recent hypotheses. Paying careful attention to variable measurement, model specification and sample coverage, the results suggest that there are significant relationships between a range of factors, including income, geographical size, population density, population diversity, military expenditure, the structure of the public sector and openness to trade, and fiscal decentralisation. However, these relationships may be more complicated than previously reported. For the entire sample and for the OECD subsample a positive relationship between income and decentralisation is found, which corroborates the results found in earlier studies. However, for the middle and lower income nations, higher income is found to be associated with less decentralisation.

Assessing the Olympics: Preliminary Economic Analysis of a Boston 2024 Games Impacts, Opportunities and Risks

The possibility of hosting the Summer Games is sparking significant debate in our community about the potential benefits, costs, and risks associated with hosting the Olympics. With these debates in mind, the Boston Foundation (TBF) commissioned the Economic and Public Policy Research group (EPPR) at the UMass Donahue Institute (UMDI) to perform a detailed economic impact assessment of Boston's proposed 2024 Olympic bid. While the Boston 2024 proposal is a working document and should be thought of as a "proof of concept" rather than a concrete plan, there are still several components of the proposal that can be evaluated at this time. The following report contributes to the public discourse by providing a preliminary assessment of the quantitative short-term economic impacts of hosting the 2024 Summer Olympic Games in Boston. In addition, this report highlights several of the potential opportunities, challenges, and risks associated with hosting the Olympic Games that are difficult to quantifiably measure at this time, but require further attention as the Olympic bid evolves over the next couple of years

Exploring the links between corruption and growth

Corruption is a widespread phenomenon, but relatively little is confidently known about its macroeconomic consequences. This paper explicitly models the transmission channels through which corruption indirectly affects growth. Results suggest that corruption hinders growth through its adverse effects on investment in physical capital, human capital, and political instability. Concurrently, corruption is found to foster growth by reducing government consumption and, less robustly, increasing trade openness. Overall, a total negative effect of corruption on growth is estimated from these channels. These effects are found to be robust to modifications in model specification, sample coverage, and estimation techniques as well as tests for model exhaustiveness. Moreover, the results appear supportive of the notion that the negative effect of corruption on growth is diminished in economies with low governance levels or a high degree of regulation. No one-size-fits-all policy response appears supportable.

Fiscal Decentralisation, Macroeconomic Conditions and Economic Growth in Australia

This paper analyses the impact of fiscal decentralisation on the Australian economy at both the aggregate and state levels. Attention is given not only to economic growth but also to a number of important macroeconomic variables which may influence growth. The results suggest that there is no straightforward impact of fiscal decentralisation on the Australian economy. At the aggregate level, when measured through expenditure shares, decentralisation is found to decrease medium-term economic growth, worsen the budget balance and increase the size of the public sector. No statistically significant effects of decentralisation are found on price stability, physical capital investment or short-term economic growth. Alternatively, revenue decentralisation is found to increase medium-term economic growth, improve the budget balance and have a stabilising effect on prices, but no relationship is found with the size of the public sector. At the state level, decentralisation is generally found to have no significant impact on the distribution of income but a weak negative effect on economic growth. In obtaining these results, special consideration is given to variable measurement, model specification, estimation technique and sample coverage. The findings highlight the importance of understanding more than just the effect of decentralisation on any one facet of an economy.

Hitchin integrable systems, deformations of spectral curves, and KP-type equations

An effective family of spectral curves appearing in Hitchin fibrations is determined. Using this family the moduli spaces of stable Higgs bundles on an algebraic curve are embedded into the Sato Grassmannian. We show that the Hitchin integrable system, the natural algebraically completely integrable Hamiltonian system defined on the Higgs moduli space, coincides with the KP equations. It is shown that the Serre duality on these moduli spaces corresponds to the formal adjoint of pseudo-differential operators acting on the Grassmannian. From this fact we then identify the Hitchin integrable system on the moduli space of Sp(2m)-Higgs bundles in terms of a reduction of the KP equations. We also show that the dual Abelian fibration (the SYZ mirror dual) to the Sp(2m)-Higgs moduli space is constructed by taking the symplectic quotient of a Lie algebra action on the moduli space of GL-Higgs bundles.Comment: 35 pages. Reference update

C32, A Young Star Cluster in IC 1613

The Local Group irregular galaxy IC 1613 has remained an enigma for many years because of its apparent lack of star clusters. We report the successful search for clusters among several of the candidate objects identified many years ago on photographic plates. We have used a single HST WFPC2 pointing and a series of images obtained with the WIYN telescope under exceptional seeing conditions, examining a total of 23 of the previously published candidates. All but six of these objects were found to be either asterisms or background galaxies. Five of the six remaining candidates possibly are small, sparse clusters and the sixth, C32, is an obvious cluster. It is a compact, young object, with an age of less than 10 million years and a total absolute magnitude of M_V = -5.78+/-0.16 within a radius of 13 pc.Comment: 5 pages, 5 figures, to be published in the May 2000 issue of the PAS